Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 33.244342 35.844999 38.669114 41.985270 45.800903 50.088971 55.323510
2025-05-18 29.095307 32.505929 36.444072 41.401060 47.584889 55.206236 65.586393
2025-05-25 26.418455 30.170143 34.673158 40.606817 48.435730 58.762221 74.100131
2025-06-01 24.449336 28.374419 33.223305 39.841256 48.971231 61.713873 82.147527
2025-06-08 22.755442 26.728520 31.744880 38.780271 48.837276 63.545253 88.758516
2025-06-15 22.154728 26.394307 31.887745 39.851457 51.753166 70.249171 105.007030
2025-06-22 21.209730 25.524996 31.221857 39.683895 52.762765 74.081776 117.336633
2025-06-29 20.217439 24.520348 30.283553 39.009537 52.865642 76.362610 127.331765
2025-07-06 19.200451 23.421096 29.135258 37.912709 52.142206 77.034062 134.073031
2025-07-13 18.978944 23.389404 29.477050 39.077408 55.252633 85.289149 162.253736
2025-07-20 18.645596 23.177179 29.535149 39.791635 57.671303 92.747586 193.197180
2025-07-27 18.290732 22.911155 29.489668 40.323568 59.820092 100.159453 229.990734
2025-08-03 17.710073 22.314720 28.945480 40.043355 60.528070 104.814998 262.999338
2025-08-10 17.103005 21.655167 28.272506 39.499665 60.677887 108.269860 295.864374
2025-08-17 16.497391 20.970653 27.523162 38.764569 60.354356 110.490554 326.594773
2025-08-24 15.941673 20.336686 26.819515 38.055380 59.997871 112.566735 360.612623
2025-08-31 15.359971 19.642905 25.990884 37.071411 58.966050 112.604573 383.657033
2025-09-07 15.256556 19.654829 26.268702 38.064834 62.233505 125.810906 535.842582
2025-09-14 14.912770 19.290724 25.927453 37.909524 62.977805 131.800051 657.785015
2025-09-21 14.492087 18.795366 25.352587 37.284144 62.588218 134.063180 753.482281
2025-09-28 14.013720 18.198041 24.590078 36.265856 61.194400 132.621510 794.918048
2025-10-05 13.979982 18.278164 24.933720 37.347110 64.850010 150.330957 1409.950722
2025-10-12 13.863900 18.225711 25.054142 38.009390 67.617696 166.505116 2809.165292